Demand Forecast: Outdoor Grill Sales

Historical Performance (12 months)

• Total Units Sold: 371 units
• Average Monthly Sales: 30.9 units/month
• Standard Deviation: 21.6 units
• Range: 5 - 62 units
• Coefficient of Variation: 69.9%
• Demand Pattern: HIGH variability (seasonal product)

Trend Analysis

• Direction: DECLINING
• Slope: -0.91 units/month
• Year-over-year rate: -35.1%
• Trend confidence (R²): 0.023
• Assessment: Seasonality dominates - no significant underlying trend

Seasonal Pattern Detected

Peak Month: May (average 62 units)
Lowest Month: December (average 5 units)

Seasonality Assessment: Strong seasonality detected

• Outdoor grills are highly seasonal products
• Peak season (Apr-Aug) represents 79% of annual sales
• 12x difference between peak (May) and trough (Dec)

Demand Forecast - Next 3 Months

January 2025

• Point Forecast: 8 units
• 80% Confidence: 0-22 units
• 95% Confidence: 0-29 units
• Interpretation: Low season - minimal demand expected

February 2025

• Point Forecast: 12 units
• 80% Confidence: 0-26 units
• 95% Confidence: 0-33 units
• Interpretation: Still off-season - slight uptick from January

March 2025

• Point Forecast: 25 units
• 80% Confidence: 11-39 units
• 95% Confidence: 4-46 units
• Interpretation: Spring ramp-up begins - demand accelerates into peak season

April 2025 Outlook

• Expected: 45 units (peak season begins)
• Range: 38-52 units (based on historical April-May peak)
• Critical: Place large order by early March to meet April demand

Inventory Recommendations

Optimal Reorder Point (95% Service Level)

• Lead Time: 4 weeks (28 days)
• Average Demand During Lead Time: 28.4 units
• Safety Stock: 34.1 units
• Reorder Point: 62.5 units
• Action: When inventory reaches 63 units → place order

Safety Stock by Season

Order Quantity Recommendations

January 2025:

• Order: 32 units
• Timing: Place by January 10th for early February arrival
• Rationale: Cover Jan + Feb + early March demand

Late February/Early March 2025 (CRITICAL):

• Order: 171 units
• Timing: Place by March 1st (4-week lead time for April peak)
• Rationale: Cover late March + April + May peak demand + peak safety stock
• Risk if missed: Stockout probability >70% during peak grilling season

June 2025:

• Order: 161 units
• Timing: Place by June 1st for July delivery
• Rationale: Cover Jul + Aug + Sep (late summer season)

Risk Analysis

Stockout Risk

• January-February: LOW (5% chance) - off-season demand is minimal
• March: MODERATE (15%) - ramp-up begins
• April-May: CRITICAL RISK (70%+) if March order missed or insufficient
• Peak Season Revenue at Risk: Estimated $21,400-$25,400 (assuming $200/unit)

Overstock Risk

• Q4 (Oct-Dec): Ordering too much ties up capital for 3-4 months
• Late Summer: Avoid overordering in August - demand drops sharply in Q4
• Recommendation: Keep Q4 total inventory ≤20 units
• Clearance Strategy: Begin end-of-season promotions in late August/September

Key Insights

1. Extreme Seasonality: Sales vary 12x from peak (May: 62) to trough (Dec: 5)
2. Peak Season Concentration: April-August accounts for 79% of annual sales (293 units)
3. Predictable Pattern: Grills follow classic outdoor seasonal pattern
4. Critical Timing: 4-week lead time means early March order determines peak season success
5. Capital Efficiency: Dramatically reduce safety stock Q4 to avoid tying up cash
6. High Service Level Risk: 95% service level in peak season requires 50+ units safety stock

Recommended Actions

This Month (January 2025):

1. Place order for 30-35 units by January 10th
2. Confirm supplier capacity for 150+ unit order in March
3. Review pricing strategy for peak season
4. Plan spring marketing campaign (launch mid-February)
5. Current inventory check: Should have ~15-20 units on hand

February 2025:

1. Monitor January sales vs forecast (expect 7-10 units)
2. Finalize March purchase order (critical)
3. Set up inventory alerts: reorder at 35 units (peak season threshold)
4. Launch early-bird promotions to validate demand

Early March 2025 (CRITICAL - HIGHEST PRIORITY):

1. By March 1st: Place order for 150-160 units
2. Allocate 45-50 units as peak season safety stock
3. Coordinate with supplier on phased delivery if possible
4. Prepare fulfillment operations for 5x volume increase
5. Consider expedited shipping option as backup plan

April-May 2025 (Peak Season Management):

1. Monitor daily sales vs forecast
2. If tracking >10% above forecast, place emergency reorder
3. Prepare promotional campaigns for sustained demand

June 2025:

1. Place order for 130-140 units by June 1st
2. Cover late summer demand (Jul-Sep)

Ongoing:

• Track actual vs forecast weekly during peak season (Apr-Aug)
• Update forecast monthly with new sales data
• Review safety stock levels quarterly
• Plan end-of-season clearance: Launch late August
• Monitor weather forecasts: Exceptionally hot summers drive higher grill sales
• Consider pre-orders/reservations for peak season to lock in demand

Forecast Methodology Note

Data Available: 12 months (1 complete seasonal cycle)
Method Used: Seasonal naive forecast with seasonal indices
Confidence: Moderate - single cycle limits pattern validation
Recommendation: Update forecast quarterly; confidence will improve with 24+ months data