Mobile App Revenue Drop (Android-Specific)

SCENARIO: Mobile app revenue fell 25% in 2 days. Seeing issues mainly on Android. No recent deployments.

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GENERATED HYPOTHESES (19 total)
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CATEGORY: TECHNICAL
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1. Android-specific payment flow crash/bug
   Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 5/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 125
   Rationale: Revenue drop concentrated on Android; payment crashes directly prevent purchases

2. Payment gateway API failure for Android SDK
   Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 100
   Rationale: Platform-specific payment integration issue; check payment provider logs

3. Google Play billing library issue
   Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 80
   Rationale: Google Play billing system changes can break in-app purchases

4. Network connectivity issues on Android
   Impact: 3/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 45
   Rationale: API calls failing; check error rates and timeouts

5. App performance degradation blocking checkout
   Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 60
   Rationale: Slow load times cause checkout abandonment; check performance metrics

CATEGORY: PRODUCT
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6. Unannounced A/B test changed pricing/paywall
   Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 100
   Rationale: No deployment ≠ no experiment; check experiment platform

7. Payment button UX broken on Android
   Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 80
   Rationale: UI rendering issue hiding/breaking purchase CTA

8. Promotional pricing/discount expired
   Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 60
   Rationale: Marketing campaign ended; users expect previous price

9. Subscription renewal failure spike
   Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 64
   Rationale: Existing subscribers failing to renew; billing issue

CATEGORY: EXTERNAL
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10. Google Play policy enforcement/app restrictions
    Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 60
    Rationale: Google can restrict billing without notice; check Play Console

11. Payment provider outage or throttling
    Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 75
    Rationale: Stripe/Braintree/etc status page shows incidents

12. Currency/exchange rate display bug
    Impact: 3/5 | Likelihood: 2/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 24
    Rationale: Price shown incorrectly in local currency

13. Major Android OS update breaking compatibility
    Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 48
    Rationale: Recent Android version causing payment issues

CATEGORY: USER BEHAVIOR
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14. Android user cohort shift (high-value users churned)
    Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 2/5 | Ease: 3/5 | PRIORITY: 24
    Rationale: Natural user composition change; cohort analysis needed

15. Geographic shift (high-revenue region decreased)
    Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 60
    Rationale: Revenue concentrated in specific countries; segment by geo

16. Android DAU stable but conversion dropped
    Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 4/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 100
    Rationale: Users present but not purchasing; funnel breakdown

CATEGORY: DATA QUALITY
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17. Revenue tracking/attribution broke on Android
    Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 60
    Rationale: False alarm; validate raw purchase events vs processed revenue

18. Payment provider webhook delivery failure
    Impact: 5/5 | Likelihood: 3/5 | Ease: 4/5 | PRIORITY: 60
    Rationale: Purchases happening but not recorded; check webhook logs

19. Google Play revenue reporting delay
    Impact: 4/5 | Likelihood: 2/5 | Ease: 5/5 | PRIORITY: 40
    Rationale: Google Play Console delayed sync; check direct API

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PRIORITIZATION MATRIX (Impact × Likelihood)
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                HIGH IMPACT
                    ↑
     ─────────────────────────────────
     │                    │           │
HIGH │   #1 (Payment bug) │  #10 (GP) │

LIKELI-│ #6 (A/B test) │ #17 (Trk)│
HOOD │ #16 (Conversion) │ (Medium) │
│ CHECK FIRST │ │
├────────────────────┼───────────┤
│ #2 (API) │ #14, #12│
│ #11 (Provider) │ (Lower │
LOW │ #3 (Play Bill) │ Priority)│
│ QUICK WINS │ │
─────────────────────────────────
→
HIGH LIKELIHOOD

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INVESTIGATION SEQUENCE
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⚡ WAVE 1 (5-7 minutes total)
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→ #16: Conversion funnel breakdown
Action: Compare Android checkout funnel past 2 days vs baseline
Time: 1 minute
Info gain: Identifies exact step where revenue drops (payment vs intent)

→ #1: Android payment crash rate
Action: Check crash analytics filtered to Android payment screens
Time: 1 minute
Info gain: Direct blocker identification; yes/no answer

→ #6: Active A/B tests or experiments
Action: Check experiment platform for any active tests on Android
Time: 2 minutes
Info gain: Experiment changes can deploy without code releases

→ #17: Revenue tracking validation
Action: Compare raw purchase_completed events vs revenue dashboard
Time: 2 minutes
Info gain: Rules in/out tracking false alarm

→ #2: Payment gateway API errors
Action: Check payment provider dashboard for Android error rate spike
Time: 1 minute
Info gain: Fast yes/no on payment processing failures

⏱️ WAVE 2 (10-15 minutes)
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→ #11: Payment provider status - Check Stripe/Braintree status page
→ #3: Google Play billing - Review Play Console for billing library warnings
→ #10: Play Store restrictions - Check Play Console for policy warnings
→ #18: Webhook failures - Validate webhook delivery success rate
→ #15: Geographic segmentation - Compare revenue by country
→ #7: Payment button UX - Test purchase flow on Android devices
→ #9: Subscription renewals - Check renewal failure rate spike

🔍 WAVE 3 (If needed)
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→ #4, #5, #8, #12, #13, #14, #19 - Lower priority hypotheses

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DATA REQUESTS (Priority Order)
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Request 1: Platform Revenue Validation
“Show me revenue by platform (iOS vs Android) for past 7 days with daily breakdown”
Time: 30 seconds | Rules in/out: Confirms Android-specific issue magnitude

Request 2: Conversion Funnel Segmentation
“Show Android checkout funnel (product_view → add_to_cart → checkout_start → payment_submit → purchase_complete) for past 2 days vs previous 7 days”
Time: 1 minute | Rules in/out: Pinpoints exact drop-off point in purchase flow

Request 3: Crash Analytics
“What was crash rate on Android specifically for payment/checkout screens past 2 days vs baseline?”
Time: 1 minute | Rules in/out: Technical blocker preventing purchases

Request 4: Payment Provider Errors
“Show payment API error rate and error codes for Android transactions past 2 days”
Time: 1 minute | Rules in/out: Payment gateway processing failures

Request 5: Active Experiments
“List all active A/B tests or feature flags affecting Android users in past 2 days”
Time: 2 minutes | Rules in/out: Unannounced experiment changing pricing/UX

Request 6: Revenue Tracking Validation
“Compare count of raw ‘purchase_completed’ events vs processed revenue records for Android past 2 days”
Time: 2 minutes | Rules in/out: Data pipeline/tracking false alarm

Request 7: Geographic Revenue Distribution
“Show Android revenue by country (top 10) past 2 days vs previous 7 days”
Time: 1 minute | Rules in/out: Regional payment issue or user shift

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INTERVIEW TALKING POINTS
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“I’ve identified 19 hypotheses across 5 MECE categories. Given that we know
the issue is Android-specific and no deployments occurred, I’m prioritizing
three high-likelihood scenarios:

Wave 1 (5-7 minutes):

• Conversion funnel analysis (1min) - The fastest way to identify where
exactly users are dropping off. Are they reaching checkout? Clicking pay?
Or is the payment failing?

• Android payment crashes (1min) - If the payment screen is crashing,
this directly prevents revenue and would show immediately in crash analytics

• Active experiments (2min) - No deployment doesn’t mean no changes. An A/B
test or feature flag could have changed pricing, paywalls, or payment UX
for Android users

• Revenue tracking validation (2min) - Quick sanity check: are purchases
happening but not being recorded? Compare raw events to processed revenue

• Payment gateway errors (1min) - Check if Stripe/Braintree is returning
errors specifically for Android transactions

The key insight: Android-specific + no deployment suggests either (1) an
external dependency changed (Google Play billing, payment provider, A/B test),
(2) a crash preventing completion, or (3) a tracking issue making revenue
appear to drop. Wave 1 rules in/out all three scenarios in under 7 minutes.”