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Quarterly Sales with Seasonality
Annual sales forecast for a business with strong Q4 seasonal patterns. Uses 3 years of quarterly data (12 points) to detect 100% seasonality and selects Seasonal ARIMA model.
Input
What you provide to the skill
need Q1-Q4 2025 sales forecast - quarterly sales 2022-2024: Q1 $2.1M, Q2 $2.3M, Q3 $2.8M, Q4 $3.2M, Q1 $2.4M, Q2 $2.6M, Q3 $3.1M, Q4 $3.5M, Q1 $2.7M, Q2 $2.9M, Q3 $3.4M, Q4 $3.8M
Output
What the skill generates for you
=== BUSINESS FORECAST REPORT ===
DATA SUMMARY:
Historical Data: 12 periods (2022-2024)
Date Range: 2022-01-01 to 2024-10-01
Frequency: quarterly
Value Range: $2.10M to $3.80M
PATTERN DETECTION:
Trend: Upward (+3.7% per period)
Seasonality: Strong (100.0% of variance)
Model Selected: Seasonal ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1,4)
MODEL ACCURACY:
MAPE: 18.0% (Moderate)
FORECAST:
Period Forecast 80% Range
2025-Q1 $3.00M $3.00M - $3.00M
2025-Q2 $3.20M $3.20M - $3.20M
2025-Q3 $3.70M $3.70M - $3.70M
2025-Q4 $4.10M $4.10M - $4.10M
FORECAST SUMMARY:
Total Forecasted Value: $14.00M
Average Per Period: $3.50M
Peak Period: 2025-Q4 ($4.10M)
Lowest Period: 2025-Q1 ($3.00M)
KEY INSIGHTS:
- Strong growth trend detected - expect continued increases
- Strong seasonal patterns - plan for Q4 peaks and Q1 troughs
- Moderate accuracy (18% MAPE) - use confidence ranges for planning
- Q4 2025 projected at $4.10M (8% increase over Q4 2024)
- Full year 2025: $14.00M total revenue
About This Skill
Generate accurate time series forecasts from historical business data. Automatically detects trends and seasonality, selects optimal ARIMA/exponential smoothing models, and delivers confidence intervals with plain-language business insights.
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