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Weekly User Signups Forecast
Short-term 4-week signup forecast using 16 weeks of historical data. Shows excellent model accuracy (4.9% MAPE) with clear upward trend and practical capacity planning recommendations.
Input
What you provide to the skill
predict weekly signups for next 4 weeks - last 16 weeks: 120, 135, 142, 128, 145, 152, 138, 155, 162, 148, 168, 175, 158, 178, 185, 172
Output
What the skill generates for you
=== BUSINESS FORECAST REPORT ===
DATA SUMMARY:
- Historical Data: 16 weeks
- Value Range: 120 to 185 signups per week
- Current Trend: Upward (+2.3% per week)
MODEL ACCURACY:
- MAPE: 4.9% (Excellent - highly reliable)
FORECAST - NEXT 4 WEEKS:
| Week | Expected Signups | 80% Confidence Range |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 184 | 174 - 194 |
| 18 | 188 | 174 - 202 |
| 19 | 191 | 174 - 209 |
| 20 | 195 | 175 - 215 |
FORECAST SUMMARY:
- Total Expected Signups (4 weeks): 758
- Average Per Week: 189
- Growth Rate: +2.3% per week
KEY INSIGHTS:
- Strong upward trend detected - expect continued growth
- Week 20 forecasted to peak at 195 signups
- High forecast accuracy (MAPE 4.9%) - results are highly reliable for planning
- Confidence intervals widen over time, but remain narrow due to strong historical pattern
BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS:
- Plan for ~190 signups/week average over next month
- Prepare onboarding capacity for up to 215 signups in peak weeks
- Growth trajectory consistent - likely sustainable in near term
About This Skill
Generate accurate time series forecasts from historical business data. Automatically detects trends and seasonality, selects optimal ARIMA/exponential smoothing models, and delivers confidence intervals with plain-language business insights.
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