Launch Attribution Analysis Report

Launch Performance Summary

| Period | Visitors | Signups | Conversion Rate |
|––––|–––––|———|—————–||
| Baseline (pre-launch) | 50/day | 1/day | 2.0% |
| Launch day | 200 | 5 | 2.5% |
| Days 2-3 | ~100 (projected) | ~2 (projected) | 2.0% |
| Days 4-7 | ~65 (projected) | ~1 (projected) | 1.8% |
| New baseline | TBD | TBD | TBD |

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Attribution Window Analysis

Day 0 (Launch Day)

Incremental Impact:

• Visitors: 200 actual - 50 baseline = +150 incremental
• Signups: 5 actual - 1 baseline = +4 incremental
• Launch-attributed conversion rate: 2.67% (4/150)

Confidence: HIGH - This is clearly launch-driven traffic.

Analysis: Your launch traffic converted at approximately the same rate as your baseline (2.67% vs 2.0%), which indicates good product-market fit. Product Hunt traffic is often “browse mode” traffic that converts 20-40% worse than organic, so matching your baseline is actually a positive signal.

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Incremental Impact Calculation

Direct Launch Impact (Day 0 only)

Metric	Baseline Projection	Actual	Launch Increment
Visitors	50	200	+150 (300% lift)
Signups	1	5	+4 (400% lift)

Expected Decay Pattern (7-day projection)

Days 2-3 (assuming 60% traffic drop):

• Visitors: ~80/day vs baseline 50 = +30/day × 2 days = +60 incremental visitors
• Signups: ~1.6/day vs baseline 1 = +1-2 incremental signups

Days 4-7 (assuming 85% drop from peak):

• Visitors: ~60/day vs baseline 50 = +10/day × 4 days = +40 incremental visitors
• Signups: ~1.2/day vs baseline 1 = +1 incremental signup

Total 7-day incremental projection:

• Visitors: +150 (day 0) + 60 (days 2-3) + 40 (days 4-7) = +250 total
• Signups: +4 (day 0) + 1.5 (days 2-3) + 1 (days 4-7) = +6-7 total

Confidence: Day 0 = HIGH | Days 2-7 = MEDIUM (need actual data to confirm)

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Decay Pattern Visualization

Launch Traffic Decay (Projected)
200 |██████████ Day 0 (Launch)
    |
150 |
    |
100 |██████ Days 2-3 (60% drop)
    |
 50 |███ Days 4-7 (85% drop from peak)
    |_________________________________
     0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7 (days)
    
Baseline: ─────────────────────────── (50/day)

Pattern: Your launch created a 4x spike on day 0. Typical Product Hunt launches decay 60-70% by day 2, then gradually return to baseline by day 7-10.

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ROI Summary

Assumptions Needed

Since you didn’t provide product economics, I’ll use conservative indie maker benchmarks:

• Trial-to-paid conversion: 10% (typical freemium SaaS)
• Average price: $20/month (typical indie product)
• Customer lifetime: 6 months (conservative)
• Time invested: 15 hours (typical PH launch prep)

Note: Adjust these assumptions based on your actual metrics for accurate ROI.

Direct ROI (7-day window)

6-7 incremental signups × 10% conversion = 0.6-0.7 paying customers

Revenue projections:

• 1-month: 0.7 × $20 = ~$14
• 6-month (LTV): 0.7 × $20 × 6 = ~$84
• 12-month: 0.7 × $20 × 12 = ~$168 (assumes no churn)

Hourly ROI:

• 1-month: $14 / 15 hours = $0.93/hour ❌
• 6-month: $84 / 15 hours = $5.60/hour ⚠️
• 12-month: $168 / 15 hours = $11.20/hour ⚠️

Lasting Impact Potential

Critical unknown: What is your baseline 30 days post-launch?

If Product Hunt created:

• +20% lasting lift (50 → 60 visitors/day, 1 → 1.2 signups/day):

  • Extra 0.2 signups/day × 365 days = 73 signups/year
  • × 10% paid = 7.3 customers/year
  • × $20 × 6 months LTV = $876/year recurring value

• +50% lasting lift (50 → 75 visitors/day, 1 → 1.5 signups/day):

  • Extra 0.5 signups/day × 365 days = 183 signups/year
  • × 10% paid = 18.3 customers/year
  • × $20 × 6 months LTV = $2,196/year recurring value

This is where the real value lives. Product Hunt’s lasting impact from:

• SEO backlinks (PH listing ranks well)
• Social proof (badges, testimonials)
• Word-of-mouth from early users

Total ROI Projection

Scenario	Direct (7-day)	Lasting (annual)	Total 12-mo Value	ROI/Hour
Conservative (0% lasting lift)	$168	$0	$168	$11.20
Moderate (+20% lasting lift)	$168	$876	$1,044	$69.60
Good (+50% lasting lift)	$168	$2,196	$2,364	$157.60

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Verdict: Was It Worth It?

Based on Current Data (Day 0 only): ⚠️ UNCLEAR

Direct impact alone: Probably not worth 15 hours at $11/hour 12-month ROI.

However, the real verdict depends on:

1. Lasting baseline lift (measure at day 30)

   • If you see +20% lasting lift, this becomes worthwhile ($70/hour annual ROI)
   • If you see +50% lasting lift, this becomes highly worthwhile ($158/hour annual ROI)
   • Product Hunt typically delivers 20-50% lasting lift for successful launches

2. Your actual product economics

   • Higher price point → better ROI
   • Better trial-to-paid conversion → better ROI
   • Longer customer lifetime → much better ROI

   If your LTV is $200 (not $120), everything above gets 1.67× better

3. Your opportunity cost

   • What else could you do with 15 hours?
   • If you’re pre-revenue, any ROI > $0 compounds over time
   • If you’re established, compare to other growth channels

What to Measure Now

Track these metrics for next 30 days:

1. Daily visitors - Looking for new baseline above 50/day
2. Daily signups - Looking for new baseline above 1/day
3. Referrer data - How much “Product Hunt” → “Direct” carries over?
4. Paid conversions - Confirm 10% trial-to-paid assumption

Check back in 30 days to calculate lasting impact and final verdict.

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Optimization Recommendations

What Went Well ✅

1. Conversion rate held steady (2.5% launch vs 2.0% baseline)

   • Product Hunt traffic often converts 20-40% worse
   • Your messaging/landing page resonated with cold traffic
   • This is a strong signal of product-market fit

2. Solid traffic multiplier (4× baseline on launch day)

   • 200 visitors from PH is respectable for non-top-5 products
   • Indicates decent positioning or attractive value prop

What Could Improve 🔧

1. Conversion rate optimization

   • You matched baseline (good) but didn’t exceed it
   • Action: A/B test Product Hunt-specific landing page
     • Add “As featured on Product Hunt” badge
     • Show live user count or testimonials
     • Create urgency with launch-day offer
   • Target: Increase launch traffic conversion to 3-4% (+50-100%)
   • Impact: Same 200 visitors → 6-8 signups instead of 5

2. Attribution tracking

   • You can’t separate PH traffic from other sources
   • Action: Use UTM parameters religiously
     • PH link: ?utm_source=producthunt&utm_campaign=launch_jan2026
     • Twitter: ?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=launch_jan2026
   • Impact: Know exactly which channel drove each signup

3. Decay extension strategy

   • Most PH traffic disappears by day 3-7
   • Action: Post-launch content to extend visibility
     • “We launched on PH and learned…” blog post (ranks for PH keywords)
     • Thank you tweet with key metrics (encourages reshares)
     • Email drip to launch signups with success stories
   • Impact: Extend decay window from 7 days → 14-21 days

Next Launch Strategy

If you launch again (different product or re-launch):

Time allocation (15 hours total):

• Pre-launch (8 hours):

  • 3 hours: Build waitlist, warm up audience
  • 2 hours: Prepare Product Hunt page (screenshots, copy)
  • 2 hours: Create launch-specific landing page with social proof
  • 1 hour: Set up attribution tracking (UTM parameters, analytics)

• Launch day (5 hours):

  • 3 hours: Engage in PH comments, respond to questions
  • 2 hours: Cross-post to Twitter, relevant Slack/Discord communities

• Post-launch (2 hours):

  • 1 hour: Write launch retrospective blog post
  • 1 hour: Email warm leads who didn’t convert during launch

Expected improvement:

• Same traffic (200 visitors) but 3.5% conversion = 7 signups (+40%)
• Better attribution = know which 2 hours drove most value
• Post-launch content = extend decay to 14 days = +2-3 more signups

Projected next launch: 9-10 incremental signups vs 6-7 this time (+30-40% improvement)

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Action Items

Immediate (Next 7 Days)

1. ✅ Track daily visitors and signups for next 30 days
2. ✅ Set up UTM parameters for all future campaigns
3. ✅ Add “Product Hunt” question to signup survey (“How did you hear about us?”)

Short-term (Next 30 Days)

4. ✅ Calculate lasting baseline lift at day 30
5. ✅ Run final ROI calculation with actual economics and lasting lift
6. ✅ A/B test launch-specific landing page improvements
7. ✅ Write launch retrospective blog post (extends PH SEO value)

Before Next Launch

8. ✅ Pre-warm audience with waitlist (aim for 100+ signups pre-launch)
9. ✅ Create launch-day exclusive offer (time-limited to increase urgency)
10. ✅ Prepare post-launch content strategy to extend decay window

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Summary

Direct Impact (Confirmed):

• +150 incremental visitors on day 0
• +4 incremental signups on day 0
• Projected +6-7 total incremental signups over 7 days
• 6-month direct ROI: ~$84 ($5.60/hour)

Lasting Impact (TBD - measure at day 30):

• Could add $876-$2,196/year in recurring value
• This determines final verdict: worth it or not

Key Strength:

• Conversion rate held steady despite cold traffic (good landing page)

Key Weakness:

• No attribution tracking (can’t optimize future launches)

Next Steps:

1. Measure baseline at day 30 to quantify lasting lift
2. Implement UTM tracking for all campaigns
3. Optimize conversion rate for next launch (+1.5% = +3 signups same traffic)

Provisional Verdict: If lasting lift ≥ 20%, this was worthwhile. If no lasting lift, direct ROI alone is marginal. Check back in 30 days with actual baseline data for definitive answer.