SEASONAL REORDER POINT ANALYSIS: Snow Shovel

SEASONAL PRODUCT DETECTED
Season-specific reorder points calculated

SEASONAL DEMAND PATTERNS:
Winter (Dec-Feb): 48 units/week (6.9/day), peak season
Spring (Mar-May): 10 units/week (1.4/day), declining
Summer (Jun-Aug): 2 units/week (0.3/day), minimal
Fall (Sep-Nov): 8 units/week (1.1/day), ramping up

Seasonal Variation: 2300% (winter vs summer)

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SEASON-SPECIFIC REORDER POINTS:

Lead Time: 21 days | Service Level: 98% (Z=2.05)

WINTER: ROP = 154 units

• Lead Time Demand: 144 units
• Safety Stock: 10 units
• Avg Daily: 6.9/day, Std Dev: 1.03

SPRING: ROP = 34 units

• Lead Time Demand: 30 units
• Safety Stock: 4 units
• Avg Daily: 1.4/day, Std Dev: 0.36

SUMMER: ROP = 7 units

• Lead Time Demand: 6 units
• Safety Stock: 1 units
• Avg Daily: 0.3/day, Std Dev: 0.09

FALL: ROP = 27 units

• Lead Time Demand: 24 units
• Safety Stock: 3 units
• Avg Daily: 1.1/day, Std Dev: 0.29

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CURRENT INVENTORY ASSESSMENT:

Current Date: November 15 (Fall -> Winter transition)
Current Inventory: 85 units
Fall ROP: 27 units -> OK for current season

WINTER PREPARATION - URGENT:
Winter starts: December 1 (16 days)
Winter ROP: 154 units
Shortfall: 69 units below winter ROP
Days of supply at winter rate: 12.4 days

CRITICAL SITUATION:

• At winter demand rate (6.9 units/day), current stock
  will last only 12.4 days
• Lead time is 21 days
• Will stockout 8.6 days BEFORE replenishment arrives

PRE-SEASON ORDER REQUIRED:
Order 275 units IMMEDIATELY

• This covers shortfall (69 units) plus 30-day winter buffer
• Order by November 18 latest
• Expected delivery: December 9

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REORDER POINT CALCULATION DETAILS (Winter Season):

Step 1: Lead Time Demand
6.9 units/day x 21 days = 144 units

Step 2: Safety Stock
SS = Z x sigma x sqrt(LT)
SS = 2.05 x 1.03 x sqrt(21)
SS = 2.05 x 1.03 x 4.58
SS = 10 units

Step 3: Reorder Point
ROP = Lead Time Demand + Safety Stock
ROP = 144 + 10
ROP = 154 units

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SEASONAL ORDERING CALENDAR:

1. Pre-Winter (Late Nov): 200-250 units

   • Order by: November 18
   • Purpose: Build up to winter ROP before season starts

2. Mid-Winter (Late Jan): 150-200 units

   • Order when inventory drops to 157 units
   • Purpose: Maintain winter ROP through season

3. Spring Transition (Early Mar): 50-75 units

   • Order when inventory drops to 35 units
   • Purpose: Cover declining spring demand

4. Fall Preparation (Early Sep): 75-100 units

   • Order when inventory drops to 28 units
   • Purpose: Prepare for fall ramp-up

Annual Summary:

• 4-5 orders per year
• Total annual volume: ~475-625 units
• Avg order: 120-125 units

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SERVICE LEVEL COMPARISON (Winter Season):

90% (Z=1.28): Safety Stock 7, ROP 151, 10% stockout risk
95% (Z=1.65): Safety Stock 8, ROP 152, 5% stockout risk
98% (Z=2.05): Safety Stock 10, ROP 154, 2% stockout risk <- SELECTED
99% (Z=2.33): Safety Stock 11, ROP 155, 1% stockout risk

RATIONALE FOR 98% SERVICE LEVEL:

• Winter is critical season (48 units/week vs 2 summer)
• Stockouts during peak season = major revenue loss
• Customer satisfaction critical during high-demand period
• Additional 12 safety stock units (98% vs 95%) = minimal cost vs stockout risk

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SUMMARY & ACTION ITEMS:

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED:
[ ] Order 275 units by November 18
[ ] Request expedited shipping if possible (reduce 21-day lead time)
[ ] Set inventory alert at 157 units for winter season

SEASONAL STRATEGY:

• Winter ROP: 157 units (critical)
• Spring ROP: 35 units
• Summer ROP: 7 units
• Fall ROP: 28 units

CURRENT STATUS:

• Current inventory (85 units) is adequate for Fall season
• BUT critically below Winter ROP (154 units)
• Shortfall: 69 units
• Risk: HIGH - stockout before replenishment arrives

RECOMMENDATION:
Order 275 units immediately. This seasonal product requires
proactive pre-season ordering. Waiting until December 1st will
guarantee stockout during peak selling season.