TREND ANALYSIS REPORT

Time Period: 90 days (Daily data)
Metric: Daily Order Volume
Data Quality: Excellent (complete daily data)

OVERALL TREND: Statistically Significant Downward Trend ⚠️
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• Decline Rate: -12.4% over 90 days (-0.34 orders/day on average)
• Statistical Significance: p = 0.018 (98.2% confident this is real)
• Trend Strength: Moderate (R² = 0.41 - trend explains 41% of variation)

⚠️ THIS IS NOT NOISE - The decline is statistically significant.

CHANGE POINTS DETECTED: 2 Critical Events
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⚠️ Day 52 (~38 days ago): INITIAL DECLINE BEGAN 📉
Before (Days 1-51): Stable, +0.8% trend (essentially flat)
After (Days 52-90): Declining, -8.2% over 38 days
Confidence: 94%

What changed 38 days ago?

⚠️ Day 71 (~19 days ago): ACCELERATION OF DECLINE 📉
Before (Days 52-70): Moderate decline, -5.1%
After (Days 71-90): Steep decline, -18.3% in just 19 days
Confidence: 91%

What happened 19 days ago to worsen the trend?

SEASONALITY: Strong Weekly Pattern Detected
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• Weekends: -22% vs. weekday average (expected for B2B/business orders)
• Tuesday-Thursday: Peak days (+8-11% above average)
• Monday: Near average performance
• Pattern is consistent throughout the 90-day period

Current performance is below expected seasonal baseline even accounting
for day-of-week patterns.

INTERPRETATION & INSIGHTS
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The declining pattern is REAL, not noise. With 98.2% statistical
confidence, this is a genuine downward trend requiring immediate attention.

The data reveals a concerning two-stage decline:

1. STAGE 1 (Day 52): Orders shifted from stable to declining. For the
   first 51 days, your daily orders were essentially flat with normal
   variation. Something changed around Day 52 that initiated a -8.2%
   decline trend.

2. STAGE 2 (Day 71): The decline accelerated sharply. In the most
   recent 19 days, orders dropped an additional 18.3%. This acceleration
   is particularly concerning.

The weekly seasonality pattern (weekend dips) is normal and consistent,
but even adjusting for this, orders are significantly below where they
should be. The baseline has shifted downward.

With R² = 0.41, the trend explains a substantial portion of the variation,
but there’s also day-to-day volatility. This is typical for daily data
but doesn’t diminish the significance of the underlying decline.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
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1. URGENT - Investigate Day 52 (~38 days ago):

   • Review all product, pricing, or checkout changes
   • Check for technical issues (page load times, mobile experience)
   • Examine marketing campaigns or channel changes
   • Review competitor activity or market conditions
   • Analyze customer acquisition source mix

2. CRITICAL - Investigate Day 71 (~19 days ago):

   • What changed to accelerate the decline?
   • Check for website bugs or payment processing issues
   • Review customer support tickets for complaints
   • Analyze traffic vs. conversion rate (is traffic down or conversion?)
   • Examine shipping costs or delivery time changes

3. Present statistical evidence:

   • Show co-founder this analysis with 98.2% confidence level
   • The change points clearly mark when issues began
   • Two distinct deteriorations = two potential root causes
   • This is NOT random variation or “just a slow period”

4. Establish monitoring:

   • Track daily orders with statistical control limits
   • Set up alerts for further decline
   • Monitor leading indicators (traffic, cart abandonment, conversion)
   • Implement weekly reporting with trend analysis

5. Prioritize investigation by impact:

   • Day 71 event is most urgent (recent, accelerating)
   • Day 52 event is root cause (initiated the problem)
   • Focus on reversible changes first

Without intervention, current trajectory projects continued decline.
The statistical evidence is clear: action is needed now.

Visualization saved to /tmp/orders_trend.png