Local Plumber Channel Scalability Analysis

Cross-Channel Performance Analysis - Local Plumber

Normalized Metrics Summary

Detailed Channel Breakdown

Facebook Ads (Best Efficiency)

• Original model: CPC (Cost Per Click)
• Spend: $600
• Clicks: 1,200
• Effective CPC: $0.50
• Click-to-job rate: 1.5% (18/1,200)
• Cost per job: $33.33 - Lowest cost
• Attribution: Immediate/same week

Google Local Service Ads

• Original model: Pay-per-lead (CPL) - $30/lead
• Leads received: 80
• Lead-to-job rate: 30% (24/80)
• Total spend: $2,400 (80 x $30)
• Cost per job: $100.00
• Attribution: 7-14 days typical

Direct Mail Campaign

• Original model: Flat fee printing/mailing
• Spend: $2,000 for 3,000 postcards
• Effective CPM: $667 (per 1,000 households)
• Response rate: 0.33% (10 jobs from 3,000 postcards)
• Cost per job: $200.00 - Highest cost
• Attribution: 30-day response window

Channel Rankings

By Efficiency (Cost per Job):

1. Facebook: $33.33/job - 6x better than direct mail
2. Google LSA: $100.00/job (+200% vs Facebook)
3. Direct Mail: $200.00/job (+500% vs Facebook)

By Conversion Quality:

1. Google LSA: 30% lead-to-job rate (high-intent, pre-qualified leads)
2. Facebook: 1.5% click-to-job rate (typical for cold traffic)
3. Direct Mail: 0.33% response-to-job rate (very low response)

By Volume Delivered:

1. Google LSA: 24 jobs (highest volume)
2. Facebook: 18 jobs (scalable)
3. Direct Mail: 10 jobs (one-time campaign)

Insights and Recommendations

Scale Facebook Ads

• Best efficiency at $33/job (6x better than direct mail, 3x better than Google LSA)
• Highly scalable - can increase budget without geographic constraints
• Immediate results (same-week bookings)
• Low 1.5% conversion suggests optimization opportunity
• Action: Triple budget to $1,800/month for ~54 jobs/month. Test audience targeting (homeowners 35+, household income filters, geographic radius refinement)

Important Consideration: Facebook’s exceptional performance may indicate excellent creative/offer or lucky timing. Monitor efficiency closely when scaling - conversion rate may drop slightly at higher spend.

Maintain Google LSA Strategically

• Middle efficiency at $100/job but 3x more expensive than Facebook
• Strong lead quality (30% conversion is excellent)
• Pay-per-lead model eliminates wasted spend
• Limited by service area population and Google’s lead distribution
• Action: Maintain current level. Focus on response speed (under 2 minutes) to improve 30% conversion rate to 35-40%. Consider this your “always-on” baseline channel.

Pause Direct Mail

• Most expensive at $200/job (6x Facebook cost)
• Extremely low 0.33% response rate
• 30-day window captured full response period
• Better suited for premium services (whole-house repipes, not repairs)
• Action: Pause completely. Reallocate $2,000/month to Facebook and digital channels.

Budget Reallocation Scenario - Which Channel Scales Best?

Current: $5,000 total spend -> 52 jobs -> $96.15/job average

Optimized for Scale:

• Facebook: $600 -> $2,600 (+$2,000 from paused direct mail)
  • 18 -> 78 jobs (+60 jobs at maintained efficiency)
• Google LSA: $2,400 -> $2,400 (maintain)
  • 24 jobs (same, constrained by market)
• Direct Mail: $2,000 -> $0 (-$2,000)
  • 0 jobs (-10 jobs)
• New Total: $5,000 spend -> 102 jobs (+50 jobs, 96% increase)
• New Average: $49.02/job (49% improvement in efficiency)

Scalability Analysis

Facebook: Best for Scaling

• Can easily 10x spend without geographic limits
• At $6,000/month spend: Estimated 150-180 jobs (efficiency may drop to $40-50/job at scale)
• Fast feedback loop (know results within days)
• Highly optimizable (creative, audiences, offers)

Google LSA: Volume Constrained

• Limited by service area population
• May already be near maximum lead volume Google can deliver
• Efficiency won’t improve with more spend (you don’t control volume, Google does)
• Best as steady baseline, not growth engine

Direct Mail: Does Not Scale

• Expensive per household reached
• Diminishing returns (mailing same households repeatedly)
• Slow feedback (30+ days to measure)
• 0.33% response is too low to scale profitably

Answer: Facebook scales best

Facebook offers:

1. Best efficiency ($33/job vs $100-200 for others)
2. Unlimited scale (not constrained by geography or platform inventory)
3. Fast optimization (daily data to improve campaigns)
4. Linear scaling potential (10x spend likely yields 7-10x results)

Google LSA is a solid steady channel but won’t scale beyond current volume. Direct mail is unprofitable and should be eliminated.

Next Steps

1. This Week: Pause all direct mail campaigns
2. This Week: Increase Facebook budget to $1,200 (2x current) as initial test
3. Next 2 Weeks: Monitor Facebook efficiency at $1,200 spend level
4. If efficiency holds: Scale to $2,500+/month over next month
5. Next Month: Test Facebook creative variations (video testimonials, before/after, emergency response messaging)
6. Next Month: Set up Facebook conversion tracking pixel if not already installed
7. Ongoing: Maintain Google LSA as baseline; respond to leads within 90 seconds

Revenue Projection (12 Months)

If you scale Facebook to $3,000/month while maintaining Google LSA:

• Facebook: $3,000/month at $40/job (slight efficiency loss at scale) = 75 jobs/month
• Google LSA: $2,400/month at $100/job = 24 jobs/month
• Total: $5,400/month spend = 99 jobs/month = 1,188 jobs/year

At $400 average job value = $475,200 annual revenue from $64,800 ad spend (7.3x ROAS)