SPRINT COMMITMENT ANALYSIS (With Disruptions)

Historical Performance:

• Last 4 sprints: 42, 45, 40, 44 points
• Average velocity: 42.75 points
• Velocity trend: STABLE
• Standard deviation: 1.92 points (4.5% of average)
• Predictability: EXCELLENT (low variance)

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CAPACITY ADJUSTMENTS FOR KNOWN DISRUPTIONS:

Base Capacity: 42.75 points (100%)
Total Team Capacity: 8 developers × 10 days = 80 person-days

Disruption #1 - PTO:

• 2 developers × 3 days = 6 person-days lost
• Impact: 6 / 80 = 7.5% capacity reduction
• Points lost: 42.75 × 0.075 = 3.2 points

Disruption #2 - Company Holiday:

• 1 day × 8 developers = 8 person-days lost
• Impact: 8 / 80 = 10% capacity reduction
• Points lost: 42.75 × 0.10 = 4.3 points

Disruption #3 - All-Hands Meeting:

• 4 hours × 8 people = 32 hours = 4 person-days lost
• Impact: 4 / 80 = 5% capacity reduction
• Points lost: 42.75 × 0.05 = 2.1 points

Total Capacity Lost: 22.5% (9.6 points)
Adjusted Available Capacity: 33.1 points (77.5% of normal)

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RECOMMENDED COMMITMENT (Based on Adjusted Capacity):

• Conservative (80% of adjusted): 26 points
• Standard (90% of adjusted): 30 points ← RECOMMENDED
• Aggressive (100% of adjusted): 33 points

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CURRENT SELECTION ANALYSIS:

• Proposed stories: 40 points
• Adjusted capacity: 30 points (recommended)
• Capacity utilization: 134%
• Risk level: HIGH
• Expected completion: 75-80% of planned stories (30-33/40 points)
• Likely spillover: 7-10 points

WARNING: Your team is overcommitting by 34% after accounting for disruptions.

Even though 40 points would normally be achievable (you average 42.75),
this sprint has 22.5% reduced capacity due to planned disruptions.

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RECOMMENDATION:

Reduce commitment to 27-30 points (90% of adjusted capacity).
Remove 10-13 points worth of stories from planned sprint.

INSIGHTS:

Disruption Impact: Your team is losing 22.5% capacity to planned
disruptions. Reflect this in commitment.

Known Constraint: Unlike unexpected issues, these disruptions are known
in advance. Plan accordingly with stakeholders.

Don’t Penalize Velocity: When tracking velocity, note this sprint had
reduced capacity. Don’t let a lower completion number affect future
velocity calculations.

PTO Distribution: Consider spreading PTO across multiple sprints to
minimize single-sprint impact. Two developers taking PTO simultaneously
for 3 days represents a 7.5% capacity hit.

Stakeholder Communication: Frame as “We’re planning for 30 points this
sprint due to planned team disruptions (22.5% capacity reduction),
returning to normal 42-point velocity next sprint.”

Risk Assessment: With 40-point commitment:

• HIGH probability (60-70%) of incomplete sprint
• Likely outcomes: rushing work in final days, quality compromises,
  or carrying 7-10 points of incomplete work into next sprint
• Team morale impact from “failed” sprint goal

With 30-point commitment:

• LOW probability (15-20%) of incomplete sprint
• 85% chance of completing all committed stories
• Possible stretch to complete additional 2-3 points if ahead of schedule
• Sustainable pace maintained despite disruptions