SPRINT COMMITMENT ANALYSIS

Historical Performance:

• Last 5 sprints: 25, 28, 27, 26, 29 points
• Average velocity: 27.0 points
• Velocity trend: STABLE (±2 points variation)
• Standard deviation: 1.4 points (5% of average)
• Predictability: HIGH (low variance)

Recommended Commitment Ranges:

• Conservative (80% of avg): 22 points
• Standard (90% of avg): 24 points ← RECOMMENDED
• Aggressive (100% of avg): 27 points

Why Standard (90%)? Your team has stable, predictable velocity with low
variance. A 10% buffer protects against minor surprises while maintaining
good throughput.

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CURRENT SELECTION ANALYSIS:

• Proposed stories: 50 points
• Capacity utilization: 208%
• Risk level: CRITICAL
• Expected completion: 54% of planned stories (27/50 points)
• Likely spillover: 23 points

WARNING: Your team is overcommitting by 108%.

Based on 5 sprints of historical data, your team consistently completes
~27 points. Committing to 50 points will result in:

• ~23 points of incomplete work
• Potential team morale impact from “failed” sprint
• Stakeholder frustration with unpredictable delivery
• Rushed work or cut corners in final days

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RECOMMENDED STORY SELECTION (24 points - Standard commitment):

COMMIT TO THESE:

1. auth (8 points)
2. notifications (8 points)
3. CSV (5 points)
4. bugs (3 points)

Total: 24 points (89% of average velocity)

STRETCH GOALS (add if ahead of schedule):

• rate limit (5 points)

DEFER TO NEXT SPRINT:

• dashboard (13 points) ← Consider breaking into smaller stories
• optimization (8 points)

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INSIGHTS & RECOMMENDATIONS:

Velocity Stability: Excellent predictability (std dev only 5%). Planning
is reliable.

Realistic Commitment: 24-point selection leaves 10% buffer (2-3 points) for:

• Unexpected production bugs
• Scope clarification discussions
• PR review cycles
• Minor technical unknowns

Large Story Warning: dashboard (13 points) is nearly 50% of sprint
capacity. Consider breaking down:

• Dashboard layout/navigation (5 points)
• Dashboard widgets/data (5 points)
• Dashboard performance/polish (3 points)

Risk Assessment: With recommended selection, risk of incomplete sprint: LOW (15%)
Success Probability: 85% chance of completing all committed stories + stretch goals