Early-Stage B2B SaaS with Limited Data

Calculates LTV for a 3-month-old B2B SaaS with only 30 customers, demonstrating appropriate caveats for limited data, scenario analysis, and guidance on when to scale marketing spend.

Input

What you provide to the skill

B2B SaaS, 3 months old. 30 customers at $80/month. 2 churned. 75% gross margin. Spent $4000 total marketing.

Output

What the skill generates for you

Business Context

Business Model: B2B SaaS (subscription)
Stage: Early-stage (3 months live)
Data Availability: Very limited (small sample, short timeframe)

Important Data Limitations

With only 3 months of data and 30 customers, LTV calculations are rough estimates. Take these numbers as directional, not precise.

Recommended Method: Simple LTV (with caveats)

Preliminary Churn Rate Calculation

Total customers: 30
Churned customers: 2
Cumulative churn: 2/30 = 6.7% over 3 months

Estimated monthly churn: ~2.3% (range could be 1-5%)

Estimated LTV Calculation

ARPU: $80/month
Estimated Churn Rate: 2.3% monthly
Gross Margin: 75%

Estimated LTV = ($80 / 0.023) x 0.75 = $2,609

Estimated CAC

Total marketing spend: $4,000
Customers acquired: 30

Blended CAC = $4,000 / 30 = $133

LTV:CAC Ratio Analysis

Metric	Value	Assessment
Estimated LTV	$2,609	Strong if churn estimate holds
Blended CAC	$133	Excellent for B2B SaaS
LTV:CAC Ratio	19.6:1	Exceptional (if accurate)
Estimated Payback	1.7 months	Outstanding

Reality Check

Your 19.6:1 ratio looks outstanding, BUT major caveats exist:

Reasons for optimism:

B2B SaaS with $80 ARPU suggests clear business value
75% gross margin is healthy
93.3% retention over 3 months is promising
Low CAC of $133 suggests efficient acquisition

Reasons for caution:

Sample size is tiny (2 churns not statistically significant)
Honeymoon period (many products see low churn in months 1-3, spike in 4-6)
Early adopters may be more forgiving than mainstream customers
Blended CAC may be misleading without channel attribution
Three months is too short to establish true retention patterns

Scenario Analysis

Best case (churn stays 2-3%): 17-26:1 LTV:CAC, exceptional unit economics

Realistic (churn settles at 5-7%): LTV $860-$1,200, 6-9:1 ratio (still good)

Worst case (churn spikes to 10-12%): LTV $500-$600, 4-5:1 ratio (marginal)

Actionable Recommendations

Immediate Priorities:

Track cohort retention religiously: Create monthly cohort retention table. Most critical metric right now.
Establish attribution tracking: Implement proper attribution to understand which channels drive the 30 customers.
Interview churned customers immediately: With only 2 churns, do deep interviews with both. Understand the exact reason for departure.

Strategic Guidance:

Don’t scale spend yet: Numbers look excellent but are statistically uncertain. Wait for 6-8 months of retention data before increasing marketing budget significantly.
Focus on product-market fit: At 3 months, retention optimization and customer success are more valuable than scaling acquisition.
Test willingness to pay: With such low CAC, consider whether you’re underpricing. Could test $99 or $120/month with new segments.

Monitoring Plan:

Set retention milestones: Track what percentage of customers reach 6 months, 12 months. These are leading indicators.
Watch for churn clustering: If both churns happened in month 3, that’s a warning signal. If spread across months, less concerning.

Current verdict: Early signals are very positive, but too early to declare success. Stay lean, focus on retention, gather more data over the next 3-6 months before aggressively scaling marketing spend.