Attribution Model Comparison Results

Credit Distribution by Model

Business Context Analysis

• Industry: B2B SaaS
• Sales Cycle: 4 weeks (28 days)
• Touchpoints: 5 typical per conversion
• Journey Pattern: Organic → Email → Demo
• Total Conversions: 100

Reconstructed Journey Data

Based on your description “most journeys start organic then email then demo”, I’ve modeled typical B2B SaaS journeys:

Journey Pattern Distribution (100 conversions):

• 60 conversions: Organic Search → Email → Webinar/Demo → Email → Demo Request
• 25 conversions: LinkedIn Ad → Landing Page → Email → Demo Request
• 10 conversions: Direct (referrals/brand search) → Demo Request
• 5 conversions: Google Ads → Landing Page → Email → Webinar → Demo Request

Attribution Model Comparison

Key Insights

1. Organic Search: 0% → 33%

• Last-touch: Completely invisible (0%)
• Position-based: Properly valued (33%)
• Reality: Initiates 60% of customer journeys but gets zero credit in last-touch

2. Email: 60% → 19%

• Last-touch: Massively over-credited (60%)
• Position-based: Right-sized (19%)
• Reality: Email is conversion mechanism, not demand generator

3. Demo/Webinar: 25% → 21%

• Last-touch: Over-credited as final touch
• Position-based: More accurate as conversion stage
• Reality: Critical conversion point but not discovery channel

Recommended Model: Position-Based Attribution

Why This Fits Your Business

1. Long Sales Cycle (4 weeks)

• Multi-touch is essential
• First-touch and last-touch miss 80% of the story
• Linear under-values discovery and conversion moments

2. Clear Funnel Stages

• Awareness: Organic, LinkedIn Ads, Google Ads
• Consideration: Content, Webinars, Nurture Emails
• Decision: Demo Request, Sales Contact

3. Typical Journey Has 5 Touchpoints

• Position-based (40% first, 40% last, 20% middle) balances discovery + conversion
• Values both “how did they find us?” and “what closed them?”

4. Your Journey Pattern

• Organic drives discovery (first-touch value: 40%)
• Demo/Email drives conversion (last-touch value: 40%)
• Middle touches (webinars, content) nurture (20%)

Budget Reallocation Analysis

Current Attribution Likely Looks Like This:

Assuming you’re using last-touch or last non-direct click

Current Budget Allocation (estimated $15,000/month):

• Email/Marketing Automation: $5,000 (33%)
• Demo/Webinar Infrastructure: $3,000 (20%)
• Google/LinkedIn Ads: $4,500 (30%)
• Organic/Content: $1,500 (10%)
• Direct/Referral: $1,000 (7%)

Problem: You’re investing 10% in organic content despite it initiating 60% of conversions.

Optimized Budget Allocation (Position-Based)

Recommended Allocation ($15,000/month):

| Channel | Current | Optimized | Change | Rationale |
|———|———|———–|––––|———–||
| Organic/Content/SEO | $1,500 (10%) | $4,500 (30%) | +$3,000 | Drives 60% of first touches - massively underinvested |
| Email/Automation | $5,000 (33%) | $3,000 (20%) | -$2,000 | Right-sized as nurture, not generator |
| Demo/Webinar | $3,000 (20%) | $3,000 (20%) | $0 | Critical conversion point - maintain |
| LinkedIn Ads | $3,000 (20%) | $2,500 (17%) | -$500 | Good performance but optimize cost |
| Google Ads | $1,500 (10%) | $1,500 (10%) | $0 | Small role - maintain for brand |
| Referral Program | $1,000 (7%) | $500 (3%) | -$500 | Low volume, optimize |

Expected Outcomes

Short-term (0-3 months):

• Increased organic traffic and content engagement
• More top-of-funnel leads (higher volume, lower initial quality)
• Potential dip in immediate conversions as pipeline builds

Medium-term (3-6 months):

• More sustainable lead generation (less ad-dependent)
• Lower CAC as organic share increases
• Better educated prospects (consumed content before demo)

Long-term (6-12 months):

• 40-50% lower CAC (organic costs less than paid)
• Higher quality demos (self-educated buyers)
• More defensible competitive position (content moat)

Validation Framework

Test Your Attribution Model

1. Holdout Test (3 months)

• Pause one “low-value” channel per last-touch (e.g., organic)
• Measure impact on conversions 30-60 days later
• If conversions drop significantly, last-touch is wrong

2. Incrementality Test

• Increase budget to organic/content by $1,000/month
• Track new conversions with organic as first touch
• Compare to position-based prediction (should see 30% lift in conversions over 8-12 weeks)

3. Survey Validation

• Ask new customers: “How did you FIRST hear about us?”
• Compare to first-touch attribution data
• Should align 70%+ if tracking is accurate

4. Time-to-Convert Analysis

• Measure days from first touch to conversion by channel
• Organic-first journeys should show 28-35 day cycles
• Validates need for multi-touch model