E-commerce Flash Sale Attribution

Attribution Model Comparison Results

Journey Data Summary

Total Conversions: 200
Business Context: E-commerce flash sale, 2-5 day sales cycle

Journey Breakdown:

• 80 conversions: Google Shopping → Purchase (single-touch)
• 40 conversions: Instagram → Email → Purchase
• 30 conversions: Organic Search → Direct (return visit) → Purchase
• 50 conversions: Other multi-touch journeys (inferred from total)

Credit Distribution by Model

Key Attribution Differences

Instagram Ads:

• Last-Touch: 0%
• Time-Decay: 8%
• Position-Based: 12%
• First-Touch: 20%

Problem: Under last-touch, Instagram appears to have ZERO ROI despite driving 20% of initial awareness.

Organic Search:

• Last-Touch: 0%
• Time-Decay: 7%
• Position-Based: 9%
• First-Touch: 15%

Problem: Organic search initiates customer journeys but gets no credit in last-touch.

Channel Ranking Changes

Last-Touch Ranking:

1. Google Shopping (40%)
2. Direct/Return (40%)
3. Email (20%)
4. Instagram (0%)
5. Organic (0%)

Time-Decay Ranking (Recommended):

1. Google Shopping (42%)
2. Direct/Return (25%)
3. Email (18%)
4. Instagram (8%)
5. Organic (7%)

Recommendation: Time-Decay Attribution

Why this model fits:

1. Short sales cycle (2-5 days) - Recent touchpoints matter more than distant ones
2. Mix of single-touch (40%) and multi-touch (60%) - Need multi-touch model but not overly complex
3. Flash sale context - Urgency and recency drive purchase decisions
4. E-commerce purchasing behavior - Customers browse, add to cart, receive reminder, convert

Why NOT Position-Based:

• With 40% single-touch conversions, position-based would over-weight first touch
• E-commerce doesn’t have distinct “awareness vs. conversion” stages like B2B
• Recency matters more than balanced credit in promotional contexts

Why NOT Linear:

• Would give equal credit to Instagram ad from 5 days ago vs. email from yesterday
• Doesn’t reflect urgency of flash sale purchasing behavior

Budget Impact

Current Thinking (Last-Touch Attribution):

• Instagram: 0% ROI → Cut budget
• Email: 20% credit → Maintain
• Google Shopping: 40% credit → Increase

Reality (Time-Decay Attribution):

• Instagram: 8% attributed value → Top-of-funnel driver feeding email list
• Email: 18% attributed value → Conversion catalyst for Instagram-initiated journeys
• Google Shopping: 42% attributed value → Strong bottom-funnel performer

Budget Reallocation Recommendation

DON’T:

• Cut Instagram/social advertising based on zero last-click attribution
• Over-invest in Google Shopping assuming it’s the only driver

DO:

• Maintain or increase Instagram for awareness campaigns
• Invest in email infrastructure (segmentation, cart abandonment, browse abandonment)
• Continue Google Shopping but optimize for efficiency
• Build organic content to support return visit conversions

Example Reallocation (if $10K/month budget):

Current (Last-Touch Thinking):

• Google Shopping: $5,000 (50%)
• Email Marketing: $2,000 (20%)
• Instagram Ads: $1,000 (10%)
• Organic/Content: $2,000 (20%)

Optimized (Time-Decay Insight):

• Google Shopping: $4,200 (42%)
• Email Marketing: $2,500 (25%) [+$500]
• Instagram Ads: $1,800 (18%) [+$800]
• Organic/Content: $1,500 (15%)

Expected Outcome:

• Stronger top-of-funnel (Instagram) feeds email list
• Better email automation captures Instagram-initiated interest
• Maintained Google Shopping efficiency at lower absolute spend
• More balanced customer acquisition funnel

Validation Framework

Test if Time-Decay model predicts performance:

1. Holdout test: Apply model to previous flash sale data - does it predict this sale’s outcomes?
2. Channel experiment: Increase Instagram spend 20% next sale - does email conversion increase?
3. Email segmentation: Tag email subscribers by source - do Instagram-sourced subscribers convert at higher rates during sales?
4. Attribution window test: Run 3-day vs. 7-day windows - validate 2-5 day cycle assumption

Bottom Line

Instagram and email work TOGETHER. Last-touch attribution breaks this partnership by giving email 100% credit for conversions that Instagram initiated. Time-decay attribution reveals Instagram’s 8% contribution and prevents budget cuts that would starve your email list of new subscribers.