Local Dental Practice with Phone Conversions

Attribution Model Comparison Results

Credit Distribution by Model

Last-Touch Attribution:

• Phone Call: 72%
• Google Ads: 12%
• Facebook Ads: 8%
• Direct Mail: 4%
• Referrals: 4%

Position-Based (Marketing Channels Only):

• Google Ads: 33%
• Organic/Maps: 24%
• Facebook Ads: 16%
• Direct Mail: 15%
• Referrals: 12%

Linear (Marketing Channels Only):

• Google Ads: 30%
• Organic/Maps: 26%
• Facebook Ads: 18%
• Direct Mail: 14%
• Referrals: 12%

Time-Decay (Marketing Channels Only):

• Google Ads: 36%
• Organic/Maps: 22%
• Facebook Ads: 17%
• Direct Mail: 12%
• Referrals: 13%

First-Touch:

• Google Ads: 40%
• Organic/Maps: 24%
• Facebook Ads: 16%
• Direct Mail: 12%
• Referrals: 8%

The Problem with Last-Touch

Last-touch is broken for call-driven service businesses:

• “Phone Call” gets 72% credit
• Phone is a conversion mechanism, not a marketing channel
• No visibility into what drove the call

Key Insights

Direct Mail: Invisible to Non-Existent

• Currently getting 0% visibility in basic tracking
• Actually drives 12-15% of patient value
• Works as top-of-funnel driver leading to brand search

Google Ads vs. Organic:

• Google Ads: Appears as 40% (last-touch) but really 33-36% (multi-touch)
• Organic/Maps: Hidden in last-touch, but drives 22-24% of value

Recommendation: Position-Based Attribution

Why this fits:

1. Short sales cycle (1-7 days) but multi-touch journeys (60% have 2+ touchpoints)
2. Clear stages: awareness (direct mail, ads) → consideration (website, maps) → conversion (phone)
3. Values both discovery AND conversion actions
4. Most common for local service businesses

Why NOT Time-Decay:
While the cycle is short, the 1-7 day window doesn’t meaningfully differentiate touchpoint value by time. Position-based better reflects the awareness/conversion split.

Why NOT Linear:
Not all touchpoints are equal—initial discovery and final conversion moments matter more than middle touches.

Implementation Requirements

To track attribution accurately:

1. Call tracking numbers per channel

   • Unique number for Google Ads
   • Unique number for Facebook Ads
   • Unique number for Direct Mail pieces
   • Track forwarding to main line

2. UTM parameters on all digital

   • Website links from Facebook Ads
   • Google Ads destination URLs
   • Track in Google Analytics

3. Updated intake form

   • Change from “How did you hear about us?”
   • To “How did you FIRST hear about us?”
   • Add second question: “What made you call today?”

4. CRM integration

   • Log all touchpoints before phone call
   • Track days from first touch to conversion

Budget Reallocation Impact

Current Budget: $3,000/month

Current Allocation (Based on Last-Touch Bias):

• Google Ads: $1,800 (60%)
• Facebook Ads: $600 (20%)
• Direct Mail: $300 (10%)
• SEO/Local: $300 (10%)

Optimized Allocation (Based on Position-Based Attribution):

• Google Ads: $1,050 (35%) [-$750]
• Facebook Ads: $480 (16%) [-$120]
• Direct Mail: $450 (15%) [+$150]
• SEO/Local: $720 (24%) [+$420]
• Referral Program: $300 (10%) [+$300 NEW]

Expected Outcomes

Immediate (Month 1-3):

• More balanced marketing mix
• Better visibility into true channel performance
• Reduced over-reliance on paid search

Medium-term (Month 4-6):

• Stronger organic presence from SEO investment
• Direct mail-to-search journeys increase
• Referral program generates predictable patient flow

Long-term (Month 7-12):

• Lower overall cost per patient (less paid ad dependency)
• More defensible patient acquisition (own your organic presence)
• Compounding returns from referrals and SEO

Validation Framework

Test if position-based attribution predicts future performance:

1. Month 1: Implement tracking and measure baseline
2. Month 2-3: Shift 20% of budget based on position-based model
3. Month 4: Compare:
   • Did channels predicted to perform better actually deliver?
   • Did cost per patient decrease?
   • Did patient quality remain consistent?
4. Month 5+: Full reallocation if validation successful

Quick Wins

This Week:

• Set up call tracking for Google Ads and Direct Mail
• Update website intake form question
• Add UTM parameters to Facebook Ads

This Month:

• Launch small referral incentive ($50 credit for both parties)
• Increase SEO budget by $200 (content, local listings)
• Test Direct Mail to different neighborhood

This Quarter:

• Build full attribution dashboard
• Optimize based on 90 days of clean data
• Create patient journey documentation

Model Selection Rationale Summary

Bottom Line: Position-based attribution will reveal that you’re over-investing in Google Ads (last-touch bias) and under-investing in the channels that create awareness (direct mail, SEO, referrals). The 1-7 day cycle with 2-3 average touchpoints is the perfect fit for this model.